Killing of Russian General Sends a Message, but Doesn’t Change the War

Ukraine’s brazen assassination of a Russian general on a Moscow street this week was a triumph for Ukraine’s intelligence services, showcasing a decade’s worth of investment in developing the skills, technology, and ingenuity needed to operate successfully behind enemy lines in wartime.

But it was a limited triumph.

Killing the general, Igor Kirillov, 54, will no doubt enrage the Kremlin and spread a degree of fear among the country’s military and political elites, military experts said. It also eliminates a top military leader, who, according to Ukrainian officials, had ordered the use of banned chemical substances against Ukrainian troops.

What it will not do, according to Western officials and experts, is improve Kyiv’s position in its war with Russia. On the battlefield, Ukraine’s forces continue to steadily lose ground to their larger and better-equipped adversaries. On Tuesday, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukrainian forces, said active fighting was occurring along more than 700 miles of the front line, including major Russian offensive operations in several regions.

“I think there’s a psychological impact that suggests to the elites that we can find you wherever you are and you’re not safe,” said Douglas London, who served as a C.I.A. station chief three times before retiring in 2019, referring to the assassination. “I don’t think it’s really going to have an effect on their war-fighting capability.”